First goalscorer betting is simple to understand and hard to master. You pick the player you think will score the first goal of the match, and the prices are generous: a star striker might be 4.50, a midfielder 9.00, and a defender 20.00 or more. The market rewards bettors who study team news, penalty duties and attacking patterns instead of just backing the biggest name on the teamsheet.

Bookmakers price first goalscorer from a player's scoring rate, his team's expected goals, and whether he takes penalties or free kicks. A striker who scores 0.6 goals per game for a team expected to score twice has roughly a 25 to 30 percent chance of scoring first, which implies fair odds of around 3.50 to 4.00. Midfielders who arrive late in the box, set-piece takers and penalty takers all get shorter prices than their open-play scoring rate alone would suggest. The market also shades the most popular names, so famous strikers are often overbet and poor value, while less glamorous forwards and attacking midfielders can be underpriced.

Start with the teamsheet. A player who does not start cannot score first, and late changes can turn a good bet into a dead one, so check the line-ups before you bet. Penalty duty matters more than most people think: roughly one goal in eight in top leagues comes from the spot, and the designated taker gets a big boost. Look at recent form and minutes played, because a striker returning from injury or playing out of position scores less. Check the opposition's defensive record against the player's position: a team that concedes heavily from crosses is vulnerable to a target man, while a team that gives away penalties suits the spot-kick taker.

A match features a famous striker priced at 4.00 to score first and his team's second striker priced at 7.50. The star scores 0.55 goals per game, the second striker scores 0.35, but the second striker takes penalties and has scored in four of his last five home games. Your estimate gives the star a 24 percent chance, implying fair odds of 4.17, so 4.00 is slightly short. The second striker's true chance is around 16 percent, implying fair odds of 6.25, so 7.50 is genuine value. A $20 stake on the second striker returns $150. Over 100 similar bets at 7.50 with a 16 percent strike rate, you would expect to return $120 for every $100 staked. The lesson is to price every candidate, not just the favourite.

Anytime scorer pays less but wins far more often, because the player can score at any point in the 90 minutes. A striker at 4.00 for first goalscorer might be 2.00 anytime. If you are confident a player will score but unsure he will score first, anytime is the better market. Some bettors split their stake: a smaller bet on first goalscorer for the big price and a larger bet on anytime scorer for consistency. Also consider last goalscorer and anytime two or more goals for prolific strikers in mismatches. Avoid first goalscorer bets on defenders and deep midfielders unless the price is enormous, because their true chance is usually below 3 percent.

What happens if your player does not start? Most bookmakers void the bet if the player does not take part, but check the rules, because some settle it as a loser. What if the first goal is an own goal? Own goals usually do not count for first goalscorer purposes; the next goalscorer is settled as the winner. Should you bet on first goalscorer every game? No. The market is high variance, so pick one or two strong opinions per weekend and keep stakes small.